U.S. retail sales highlight this week’s slate of economic data.
MONDAY
The Japanese economy likely expanded 2.3% from the previous quarter in the October-December period, according to economists surveyed by data provider Quick. Economists say the government’s travel incentives and a recovery in exports boosted growth, but they expect the economy to shrink again in the first quarter of 2021 due to a second state of emergency issued in January.
WEDNESDAY
U.S. retail sales fell in each of the final three months of 2020 as Covid-19 cases mounted, governments imposed more restrictions, fiscal support faded and consumers showed more caution. Economists forecast that the January number will show a turnaround, fueled in part by the latest round of stimulus payments and improving data on the virus in the second half of the month.
U.S. industrial production in January is expected to be up for the fourth straight month, led by another gain in manufacturing output. Factory activity has been a relative bright spot during the pandemic, thanks to solid demand for autos and other durable goods.
THURSDAY
U.S. jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 13 are expected to continue a downward trend. While that is a move in the right direction, the overall level of applications for unemployment benefits is still historically elevated, signaling a high level of layoffs and continuing labor-market dislocation.
FRIDAY
Surveys of purchasing managers are expected to indicate that the eurozone economy is sliding into recession, with the key services sector continuing to contract in February as Covid-19 infection rates remain high and government restrictions tight. By contrast, similar surveys are expected to point to a robust recovery in the U.S., as the services sector extends its recovery.
Americans snapped up single-family homes in 2020 at the fastest pace since the late days of the housing bubble. While demand is still ample, the supply of homes available for sale is not. Limited inventories and rising prices have led economists to forecast a drop for existing-home sales in January.
